In this clip from “Giant Mess”, New York Mets fan Neal Lynch reacts to The Athletic article that featured MLB scouts and executives estimating Pete Alonso’s future value.
The Athletic recently asked eight scouts and executives across the league how they each would forecast his next handful of seasons. The group mostly agreed on Alonso’s ability to continue supplying above-average offensive production because of his power through at least his age-33 season. After that, however, the evaluators mostly expressed some skepticism about Alonso’s mid-30s outlook.
Alonso ranks third all-time in home runs by a player through their first five seasons; only Ralph Kiner (215) and Albert Pujols (201) have hit more than Alonso (192), who played fewer games than both
studies on isolated power, which measures a batter’s raw power by showing how many extra bases a player averages per at-bat, indicated that a player’s peak power performance arrives during the early-to-mid-20s with a swift decline after 30.
Alonso listed: Freddie Freeman, 34, has posted a higher OPS in his 30s (.949) than he did in his 20s (.883); Joey Votto hit 36 home runs in 2021 at 37 years old; Paul Goldschmidt won the Most Valuable Player award in 2022 at 34.
“I want to age like wine,” Alonso said, “not like milk.”
Alonso zeroed in on improving in three specific counts: 2-0, 3-1 and 3-2. Check, check and check. His sOPS+ — which works like OPS+ by taking a player’s OPS and comparing it to the league average, set at 100, but for a specific split — on 2-0 went from 91 in 2022 to 237 in 2023. On 3-1, it went from 27 to 182. And on 3-2, it went from 91 to 122.
Though Alonso’s chase rate actually dropped in 2023, his strikeout rate climbed to 22.9 percent, the first time it surpassed 20 percent over a full season since he was a rookie in 2019. His walk rate stayed at 9.9 percent, right in line with his career norms.
Alonso ranked third in home runs (46) in 2023, he ranked 19th in slugging (.504);
base running remain below average
improving his outs above average from -8 in 2022 to 0 in 2023
One evaluator went as far as comparing Alonso to Hall of Fame third baseman Mike Schmidt, who hit more home runs and slugged at a higher rate in his 30s than he did in his 20s.
MLB Trade Rumors projected Alonso to earn $22 million through arbitration. FanGraphs’ ZiPS projections say he should hit at least 35 home runs with an OPS of around .850 in each of the next two seasons.
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ABOUT NEAL LYNCH:
Irish-Italian-American who graduated from a Catholic high school (even though I’m not Catholic), and a college known for producing doctors and lacrosse players, then became neither.
Former 4th string quarterback and middle relief pitcher at a Division III university.
Degrees in Film & Media Studies and Communications.
Worked for Condé Nast, New York Post, SportsNet New York, and Hearst Television.
Divorced dad who blogs, podcasts, writes, edits, optimizes, strategizes, and over-analyzes.
ABOUT “GIANT MESS”:
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Neal covers New York Giants football, Mets baseball, movies, and TV shows, mixing in funny life stories along the way.
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